Gaia The evidence behind every roundtable
Our research produces the evidence behind every roundtable and every briefing. This includes data on emissions pathways, adaptation spending, insurance retreat and industrial transition.
About
About Gaia Capital
Gaia Capital researches how climate change is governed across Europe, and convenes the people in a position to change it.
Origin
Founded with a broader mandate.
Gaia Capital’s founding mandate covered environmental pressure on European ecosystems and policy in general terms. A series of disasters narrowed that focus to climate governance specifically.
Why the focus narrowed
Four events, 2017–2026.
2017Portugal
A wildfire in Pedrógão Grande killed 66 people, most of them trapped in vehicles on a single rural road. It remains the deadliest wildfire in the country’s history.
2021Germany & Belgium
Flooding in the Ahr Valley and across parts of Belgium killed more than 220 people in a single weekend. The region’s infrastructure had not been designed for rainfall at that scale.
2022United Kingdom
The UK recorded 40.3°C for the first time. Nearly 3,000 excess deaths followed across England that summer.
2026Southern Europe
France recorded its worst wildfire season on record before August. Spain burned through six times the area lost by the same point the previous year.
What connects them
In each case the risk had been identified in advance, and the response available at the time fell short of the scale required. Gaia Capital was founded on the view that these events form a recurring pattern in European governance, and that the pattern can be identified earlier than it has been.
How the work operates
Research and dialogue, run from the same team.
Research
Dialogue
Placed before the people positioned to act
That evidence goes to the people positioned to act on it, in meetings small enough that participants speak candidly, without preparing remarks for the record.
Integration
One team, both functions
Research gains influence when it is discussed directly with the people it concerns, and a roundtable needs a solid evidence base to work from. Gaia Capital runs both functions from the same team for that reason.
Standards
Checked against an outside source
Every dataset behind a finding is checked against an outside source before it is circulated. Findings that fall short of this standard go back for further work.
Independence
No single funder can direct where the research points.
Funding
We maintain full independence in our work. We are funded by a mix of foundations and institutional partners, including research grants awarded on standard terms. We decline funding structured to influence a specific finding or the outcome of a roundtable. Funding relationships are disclosed on request.
Boundaries
The questions we examine are often unwelcome, whether to a government defending a missed target or to an insurer withdrawing from a flood zone. Independence from any single funder or sector allows those questions to be pursued.
Values
Four commitments that govern the research.
I
Evidence over position
Gaia Capital stands by findings that complicate the position of a funder or a partner, where the evidence supports it. The same standard applies to our own earlier work.
II
Naming uncertainty
Climate risk research is often reduced to a single figure standing in for a wide range. We state our confidence level explicitly, and caveats are retained in every version of a finding we circulate.
III
Working across fields
The questions we research often cross more than one professional field, from building codes to industrial permitting. Staff are drawn from across these areas on purpose, which widens the range of expertise we bring to each project.
IV
Revising when the evidence changes
When new information changes a conclusion we have already circulated, the update is issued to everyone who received the original finding, with the change and the reasoning behind it stated directly.
Philanthropy
Charitable giving directed at climate resilience and the public interest.
Gaia Capital’s giving reflects its commitment to climate action and environmental stewardship, and supports the following organisations.
Recognition
Gaia Capital was shortlisted for the UNEP Champions of the Earth award in the Policy Leadership category, in recognition of our work on climate governance and policy translation across Europe.